By Dave Razzano, Playmaker Correspondent
Looking back at 8 Draft classes from 2000-2007, I found 44 busts out of a total of 120 Top 15 picks. That is far too many and it is easy to identify the culprit: Red Flags!
The two classes with the most “early round” busts are 2003 and 2007 with seven each in the top 15. Ouch!
Examining those years, below are the “flags” discussed on each player leading up to the Draft. Some are good players who bust due mainly to medical issues. Several are players with overlooked “red flags.” Almost every single early pick has height, weight and speed traits on paper. This is a “security blanket” for the majority of NFL executives who lack confidence in their evaluation skills or who don’t do the work themselves. It then becomes easier to blame the “coach” for not properly developing all the physical talent that these “busts” possess.
Moral of the story: In the first round, take the “best player available” with “Zero Red Flags.” Believe me, it is possible!
2003
Charles Rogers - WR - Detroit - Pick #2
Concerns : Character and mental (10 test) on wonderlic. Was a “big play” receiver but some questioned his several dropped balls. Had a rare “work-out” on campus, running in the low 4.30’s. A Lions personnel executive was quoted in the paper the next day calling Rogers a “no brainer.”
DeWayne Robertson - DT - NY Jets - Pick #4
Concerns: I honestly cannot remember any negatives discussed on this player. Sometimes the NFL game is just too big.
Johnathan Sullivan - DT - New Orleans - Pick #6
Concerns: Work ethic was the big issue here on more than one report. In some cases it improves. In most it doesn’t.
Byron Leftwich - QB - Jacksonville - Pick #7
Concerns: Poor leader, elongated release, marginal mobility. Had strong arm but the scouts who questioned his first round talent were correct.
Jimmy Kennedy - DT - St Louis - Pick #12
Concerns: Consistency and toughness. This was a HWS player who some only considered a 3rd round type talent. Teams will reach often on this position because they are very difficult to find. Has turned into a back-up, fringe starter.
Michael Haynes - DE - Chicago - Pick #14
Concerns: Effort, consistency. Grades were all over board on this player, from 1st to 5th round. When that is the case, watch out. Have to see “discrepancy” players vs best competition.
Jerome McDougle - DE - Philly - Pick #15
Concerns: Zero. This was a unanimous “great pass rusher” who could never stay healthy.
2007
Jamarcus Russell - QB - Oakland - Pick #1
Concerns: Mental and work ethic. The negatives were overlooked due to having a “cannon” for an arm, the least important quality in a QB.
Gaines Adams - DE - Tampa Bay - Pick #4
Concerns: Strength vs the run, effort. Though Adams had some pass rush skill, his run play and overall physical nature were lacking.
Levi Brown - OT - Arizona - Pick #5
Concerns: Athletic ability. Though he was high on Draft boards and still a serviceable starter, this guy will be remembered as the player the Cards passed on Adrian Peterson to take. Scouting staff wanted Peterson. Coach and GM wanted Brown. Guess who won?
Jamaal Anderson - DE - Atlanta - Pick #8
Concerns: Consistency of play, can disappear in games. This was a player who played very well in some games and awful in others. Still in league but a big disappointment.
Ted Ginn Jr. - WR - Miami - Pick #9
Concerns: Not a receiver. Strictly a “return specialist.” This was the “shocker” of the 1st round. Far too early to take a returner. Can’t remember one scout who thought he was a starting wide receiver.
Marshawn Lynch - RB - Buffalo - Pick #12
Concerns: Character, speed. Lynch was an overhyped player who had “back-up” talent. Lack of maturity a big issue.
Adam Carriker - DT - St Louis - Pick #13
Concerns: Pass Rush, quickness. Most viewed Carriker as a solid pick here though there were some differences in terms of 1st round ability overall. His biggest negative to date is mostly “durability.”
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Dave Razzano is a former NFL scout and Playmaker Mobile correspondent with more than 22 years of professional scouting experience with the San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals under NFL coaches including Bill Walsh, George Seifert, Chuck Knox and Dick Vermeil. He's been a part of five Super Bowls with three Super Bowl wins (49ers, 1989, 1990; Rams, 2000).
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